A dramatic sky over open terrain, cool stormy side meeting warm heat-hazed side
A sky in transition — the long-term patterns behind “climate.” Illustrative (AI-generated).
How to use this page

Chapter 13 examines climate change in depth. This first lesson establishes what the data shows — where (spatial) and when (temporal) the warming appears. Green boxes are case/place studies; blue are definitions; orange are exam tips. This is a data-reading lesson, so practise interpreting the graphs.

1 · The scientific consensus

Before the data: where does the science actually stand?

Key terms
Climate vs weather

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere; climate is the long-term average pattern (typically 30+ years). Climate change is a shift in those long-term patterns.

Among climate scientists there is overwhelming agreement that Earth is warming and that human activity is the main cause. The scientific debate about whether and why is effectively settled — the remaining questions are about pace, impacts and responses. (Public and political debate is a separate thing from the scientific consensus.)

Natural variation is expected, but the current changes are inconsistent with natural cycles and coincide precisely with industrialisation and fossil-fuel use — the human fingerprint established in 12.1.

Exam tip — separate the debates

Don't confuse the (settled) scientific consensus with (ongoing) political debate. Examiners value a student who distinguishes evidence from opinion.

2 · The global data (temporal)

How the warming has unfolded over time — the “temporal” characteristic.

NASA and other agencies show Earth's global average temperature has risen by roughly 1.1–1.2 °C since the late nineteenth century, with the fastest warming in the last three to four decades. Almost all of the warmest years on record have occurred this century.

Warming since ~1880
~1.1–1.2 °C
Fastest warming
last ~40 years
Warmest years
nearly all this century
late-19th-century baseline 0+0.5+1.0+1.4 1850192019702000now temperature anomaly (°C) >+1.1°C
Figure 13.1a — Global temperature anomaly, ~1850–now (schematic, based on NASA GISTEMP / HadCRUT). Several independent datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ECMWF) agree closely — a key reliability point.

The fact that multiple independent datasets agree (NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, the UK's HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, Europe's ECMWF) is itself strong evidence — the trend is not an artefact of one method.

3 · Ocean warming

The oceans absorb most of the extra heat — with consequences for storms.

Key term
Sea-surface temperature (SST)

The temperature of the very top layer (about the top millimetre) of the ocean — a key climate indicator tracked back to the 1880s.

The ocean has absorbed the great majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases, so SSTs have risen steadily since the late 1800s. Because warm water is the fuel for tropical storms, warmer oceans mean more energy for hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons — a driver of more intense storms.

20th-century average 18801950now SST anomaly
Figure 13.1b — Sea-surface temperature anomaly since the 1880s (schematic, based on NOAA/HadSST). The steady rise, sharpest in recent decades, adds energy to storms.
Reflect & discuss
Why does a warmer ocean make storms more intense (not necessarily more frequent)?
Tropical storms draw their energy from warm surface water (evaporation and latent heat). Warmer SSTs supply more of that energy, so storms that do form can reach higher intensities, drop more rain, and intensify faster — even if the total number doesn't rise.

4 · The spatial pattern

Warming is global but uneven — the “spatial” characteristic.

Temperature-anomaly maps show that nearly every region has warmed — very few areas are cooler than their historical average. But the warming is uneven: the Arctic has warmed fastest (Arctic amplification, from 12.1), while some ocean regions lag.

Arctic — warming fastest Almost everywhere is warmer than average deeper red = greater warming · very few cool anomalies remain
Figure 13.1c — Schematic of the global warming pattern (not a precise map). Deeper shading = greater warming. The signal is near-global, strongest toward the Arctic.

5 · Climate change in Australia

The local, verifiable evidence — the examiner's favourite.

Place study · Australia
Australian temperature record (BoM)

The Bureau of Meteorology has kept reliable records since 1910. The data show:

Warming rate 1970–2021
~0.15–0.2 °C / decade
Warmest year (at the time)
2019
Extent
virtually the whole continent

Extreme heat events and dangerous fire-weather days have increased across much of Australia — a direct human-system consequence that connects to Chapter 14 (Bushfires).

Verified Australian evidence of both temporal (warming trend) and spatial (whole-continent) characteristics. Concepts: environment, change, place, scale.

PlaceChangeScale
Accuracy note

“2019 the warmest year” was correct when the source was written; newer years may have equalled or exceeded it. Always quote the BoM/CSIRO report and year, and check for the latest data before an exam.

6 · Checkpoint

Check you can do these before moving to 13.2 (Causes).

You should now be able to…

  • Distinguish climate from weather and state the scientific consensus.
  • Describe the temporal pattern of warming and why multiple datasets agreeing matters.
  • Explain ocean warming (SST) and its link to storm intensity.
  • Describe the spatial pattern (near-global, Arctic fastest).
  • Quote Australian evidence (BoM: warming rate, extent, fire weather).
Where this is heading

13.1 established what the data shows. Next, 13.2 Causes separates the natural from the human causes of that change; then 13.3 Impacts and 13.4 Responses (with Costa Rica).

7 · Resources, news & skills

Everything in this chapter traces to a source you can check. Watch the explainer, read the primary sources, follow the news, and practise the geographical skills this chapter uses.

▶ Watch

Authoritative sources

Recent news & reading

Skills applied — practise with the tool-skills suite

  • Standard graphs — reading the climate and temperature graphs in this chapter.
  • Statistics — anomalies, averages and trends in the temperature record.
  • Spatial technologies — interpreting global temperature-anomaly maps.